The 7th Congrès des associations francophones de science politique is being held at the Université du Québec à Montréal from 17 to 19 May 2017. Organised jointly with the Société québécoise de science politique (SQSP) on the theme « Flows and borders. Political and identity responses. »
It is in this context that’OSINTPOL, in collaboration with CEIM and the SIPRI, members of the scientific community interested in these issues to share their thoughts on arms flows. The conference will focus on 9 themes, providing a clearer picture of many of the current issues and trends affecting the global arms trade and, ultimately, of Canada's place in this picture.
Cécile Fauconnet, associate researcher at the Chair, presents an article co-authored with Julien Malizard, researcher at the Chair, and Antoine Pietri, associate researcher, on «French arms exports and civil conflicts: an empirical analysis».»
Summary of the presentation by Cécile Fauconnet, associate researcher :
French arms exports and civil conflicts: an empirical analysis
Cécile Fauconnet, doctoral student, UEA ENSTA ParisTech, Université Paris Saclay, Julien Malizard, researcher at the Defence Economics Chair (Paris) and at the Applied Theory Research Group (GREThA, Bordeaux), and Antoine Pietri, doctoral student, Université Paris 1 and teacher at the Lycée des Métiers de l'Hôtellerie and Tourism of the Loire Valley.
Given the recent increase in French exports of conventional weapons, we are wondering about the impact of this trade on the intensity of intra-state conflicts in the recipient countries. Two contradictory effects may be at work. On the one hand, if a government acquires such weapons, it will be in a position to use them against its opponents. This would exacerbate the intensity of the conflict. On the other hand, the purchase of weapons could deter rebellions and therefore help to stabilise a country's political situation. France is an interesting case study because it is one of the main exporters of conventional arms, and at the same time its doctrine aims to promote the stability of the countries with which it trades. The aim of this conference is to examine whether the official discourse is consistent with empirical analysis. We study 161 countries between 1992 and 2014 based on the empirical literature on civil conflict. Our econometric results indicate that French conventional arms exports do not destabilise importing countries. Indeed, we find that the share of French conventional arms exports in total conventional arms exports is negatively correlated with the probability of intense intra-state conflicts. On the contrary, the total quantity of conventional arms traded has a destabilising effect on the internal situation of buyer countries. A large number of robustness tests have been carried out, confirming the reliability of these empirical results. We then carry out an exploratory study to explain this empirical finding in two ways. Firstly, France tends to export less when the government resorts to violence against its own population (we use the Political Terror Scale for this). Secondly, we find differences in the type of equipment traded by France compared with the rest of the world. On average, it exports more air defence systems and radar and less armoured vehicles and combat aircraft, which are all categories of weapons that can be used against rebel groups.
The day's programme:
Understanding arms transfers in a defence economy-policy in transition
PANEL 1. Regional contexts and national dynamics, 17 May, 11.15 a.m. to 12.45 p.m., room SH 3140, UQÀM
East Asian defence markets: political rather than strategic considerations
Bruno Hellendorff, researcher at the Groupe de recherche et d'information sur la paix et la sécurité (GRIP), Brussels
French arms exports and civil conflicts: an empirical analysis
Cécile Fauconnet, doctoral student, UEA ENSTA ParisTech, Université Paris Saclay, Julien Malizard, researcher at the Defence Economics Chair (Paris) and at the Applied Theory Research Group (GREThA, Bordeaux), and Antoine Pietri, doctoral student, Université Paris 1 and teacher at the Lycée des Métiers de l'Hôtellerie and Tourism of the Loire Valley
The «defence package» or the illusion of an integrated European defence market
Yannick Quéau, Director of the Open Source Intelligence on Politics (OSINTPOL) Endowment Fund, Paris.
PANEL 2. Structuring factors and Canada's positioning, 17 May, 14:15 to 15:45, room SH 3140, UQÀM
The arms industry in the global slowdown: the integrating and protective role of finance
Luc Mampaey, Director of the Groupe de recherche et d'information sur la paix et la sécurité (GRIP), Brussels
Corruption in the global arms trade
Sam Perlo-Freeman, senior researcher, World Peace Foundation, Tufts University, Boston.
The differing effects of offsets on the political economy of defence
Aude-E. Fleurant, Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure (AMEX) Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden.
What is Canada's place in a changing defence economy and policy?
Yannick Quéau, Director of the Open Source Intelligence on Politics (OSINTPOL) Endowment Fund, Paris.
4. Summaries of presentations
PANEL 1. Regional contexts and national dynamics, 17 May, 11.15 a.m. to 12.45 p.m., room SH 3140, UQÀM
East Asian defence markets: political rather than strategic considerations
Bruno Hellendorff, researcher at the Groupe de recherche et d'information sur la paix (GRIP), Brussels.
To find out more about the other presentations and the conference
