Camille Laville, a researcher at the Chair, has written for the’Global Initiative for Peace and Security in Africa (GIPSA) a note on possible effects of commodity price shocks and climate shocks on the risk of local tensions using the war in Ukraine and the African continent as reference events and regions.
The note highlights the complexity of understanding (and anticipating) local tensions in areas exposed to multiple sources of vulnerability. Indeed, complex interactions, the lack of reliable local data and potential spurious correlations make it difficult to understand the local causes of violence, particularly when it comes to understand how poverty and conflict are sustained.
The note concludes with the relevance of the meta-analysis initiated with its co-author Pierre Mandon to identify the non-linear impacts of local income shocks on local conflicts and violence.
