Julien Malizard, Deputy Chairholder, and Josselin Droff, researcher at the Chair, are the authors of an article entitled «Australian submarines: the French arms export model in question», published in The Conversation.
Julien Malizard and Josselin Droff publish an article in The Conversation on the issue of sale of Australian submarines cancelled and the stakes associated with arms exports that this episode reveals.
On 15 September 2021, Australia decided to abandon the acquisition of twelve French submarines Shortfin Barracuda, produced by Naval Group, in favour of cooperation with London and Washington (AUKUS agreement - Australia, United Kingdom, United States).
To understand the reasons behind Australia's choice, the authors discuss the «rationality» of Australian decision-making by looking at the the costs and benefits of options (buying French-designed submarines or buying American submarines). From a more general perspective, the authors question the reasons that lead certain players to choose French or American equipment. The two business models are then discussed.
The Australian submarine affair involves dynamics subject to different timeframes On the one hand, international geopolitics is more governed by the short term, often requiring a high degree of reactivity. On the other hand, the defence industry is governed by planning and long term cycles. L’accelerating the geopolitical agenda Australian clearly seems to have demand and supply out of sync. In this context, the French industrialist Naval Group and the French State are «collateral victims» of a Asia-Pacific arms race where China and the United States vie for global hegemony.
From the French point of view, this case raises a number of issues: the sustainability of a defence business model dependent on exports, combined with a small domestic market compared to the United States and a army model based on high-tech equipment. But, as the example of the sale of frigates and Rafale aircraft to Greece underlines, France's brand image has not been tarnished, since over and above trade relations, an ambitious defence agreement has been signed. This shows that, like the United States, and despite the setback caused by Canberra's U-turn, France remains capable of building lasting partnerships.
