The new international arms race
Julien Malizard, Deputy Chairholder, and Claude Serfati, economist, debated in the «Et maintenant» programme broadcast live on 4 February on France Culture.
Hosted by Quentin Lafay, The discussions focused on strong growth in arms budgets around the world, against a backdrop of conflict in Ukraine and international tensions.
Investment in the defence sector has been growing for several years. « If we look at European countries, the trend in budget increases began around 2014. That is, before Russia invaded Ukraine, but at a time when the war in the Donbass was raging. « says Julien Malizard. He adds« European countries have also taken advantage of major economic trends to invest, with the end of austerity.« .
Armed globalisation?
Claude Serfati launches the debate. He explains the expression he uses in his latest book, « armed globalisation« . «In 2000, after the dissolution of the USSR, global military spending was one thousand billion dollars. Today it stands at two thousand billion. A trend which, in his view, sheds light on: « Should we believe the big campaign that would have us believe that we live in a peaceful world? We were promised that the market would bring us peace, prosperity and democracy. Today, there are nearly fifty wars for resources in progress.. »
For him, « The international reality is a vicious circle. The world is criss-crossed by economic competition, which is only exacerbated. The combination of economic competition and geopolitical rivalries has become strong and is fraught with threat. The antagonism between the United States and China is a case in point. History tells us that this combination is a recipe for deadly conflict.« .
More stock
But does the war in Ukraine mark a major turning point in arms policies? Julien Malizard agrees that « From a quantitative point of view, a number of European countries have announced fairly significant budgetary trajectories. In France in particular, the military programming law is extremely ambitious compared with the previous period. The budget is supposed to increase by 30% in nominal terms. Germany has decided on a modernisation plan with a special fund of one hundred billion euros for the acquisition of new equipment... Eastern Europe is also rearming. Sometimes in impressive proportions, in Poland for example.. »
The researcher also observes that the so-called «high-intensity» threat has become a reality. Western armies had become «expeditionary». According to strategists, this army model is no longer sufficient to deal with the new high-intensity threats. « There is a logic of transformation. We want more stock, more mass, more equipment, possibly more rustic. The question is: shouldn't we put the brakes on innovation? These debates are not perfectly clear-cut, but there are signs of change.. »
Who benefits from rearmament?
This additional demand for more armaments does not benefit the European industry so much,« points out Julien Malizard. European countries are very much turning to the United States. Claude Serfati points out that even France, " a major military nation, is relying on drones, GPS and American tanker aircraft to go into Mali« . But the economist points out that « European arms manufacturers are benefiting all the same, and let's not forget that the financial markets are also euphoric about the war in progress.... »
In January, President Emmanuel Macron announced a historic military programming law worth $413 billion over the next seven years. New needs are emerging in France.
Claude Serfati maintains that we need to be able to take a critical look at what he calls « a choice for society« . He reminds us that « To focus on the military is to run the risk of worsening our industrial deficit. In electronics, more than half of all research is funded by the military, and the result is a huge deficit for the civilian industrial sector.« .
