How will the EU embark on joint munitions production?
Julien Malizard, Deputy Chairholder, was the guest on the «Les Enjeux internationaux» programme broadcast live on 27 March 2023 on France Culture.Hosted by Baptiste Muckensturm, The discussions focused in particular on how the stocks of European nations will be replenished following donations of munitions to Ukraine.
Shortage of European shell stocks
Since the end of the Cold War, the Western powers have changed the way they engage in conflicts. From mass armies, Western countries have made the transition to projection armies. Today, armies in France, for example, are capable of «doing the whole spectrum», but in very small numbers. Added to this are shrinking budgets and the fact that equipment is becoming increasingly expensive, leading to a reduction in stocks and a rationalisation of what we have. As the transformation was carried out with an expeditionary logic in mind, the artillery, without being abandoned, was considerably reduced.
In Russia, artillery remains «the god of war».»
For Russia, artillery is a major tactical and strategic tool. As far back as 1944, Stalin referred to artillery as «the god of war». We really do have a hyper-efficient tool to enable the infantry to advance in the field. When the USSR collapsed, the Russians modernised their artillery. This modernisation process was part of a race to technological modernity, extending the range of the artillery to protect the troops.
What is the European plan?
The plan is therefore to encourage Europeans to donate their stocks between now and May, a process financed by the European Peace Facility (EPF) to the tune of one billion euros.
The second part involves placing group orders for shells. The aim is to clear stocks very quickly, but to avoid shortages, a joint order is placed immediately. The contours of this pooling are not clear. Germany has positioned itself to be the leading nation, placing and redistributing the order. Here too, the budget is one billion euros for this second pillar.
Finally, 15 industrial sites in 11 European countries have been identified by the Breton commissioner to accelerate production rates. The difficulty will lie in the underlying economic model. The war in Ukraine is creating huge needs. But if the war ends, there is a risk that if companies agree to invest to increase capacity, they will find themselves in a surplus situation. This is a tension inherent in the model. How big will the market be once the war in Ukraine is over? Will there be orders from governments to support the investments that will have been made? And we're going to have to identify the bottlenecks if we're going to be able to ramp up production. There are difficulties on the industrial sites, but the whole subcontracting chain is subject to constraints.
