Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau Ricard and Julien Malizard publish the article «Determinants of French arms exports 1991-2019», in the Revue d'économie politique (2025/5 Vol. 135)
Arms exports are a major instrument of French foreign and defence policy. They have also gradually established themselves as a strategic support for the national defence industry. This «export culture» has enabled France to occupy 2nd place in the world in terms of exports.th the world's largest arms exporter. Despite the many issues at stake, little attention has been paid in the economic literature to the macroeconomic determinants of arms exports. The French case study provides an opportunity to discuss the results of this literature. It also allows us to examine them in greater depth by taking into account a range of strategic, political and economic variables. An original database covering the period 1991-2019 has been compiled from the Reports to Parliament on Arms Exports.
A Heckman model is used to study the determinants of the decision to export and the amounts exported. The results show a positive impact of GDP per capita, a negative effect of distance and a negative effect of embargoes on the export decision. France tends to export more easily (and more) to countries involved in conflicts, particularly inter-state conflicts.
