Josselin Droff and Julien Malizard, researchers at the Chair, took part in the 27th International conference on economics and security (ICES 2024), organised from 30 June to 2 July 2024 in Doha (Qatar)
La 27th International conference on economics and security (ICES 2024) was organised at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies (Qatar), from 30 June to 2 July 2024.
For 30 years, this annual international conference provides an opportunity for economists, political scientists and researchers from other disciplines to present their work in the field of the economics of defence, security and peace.
The 2024 edition brought together some fifty specialists from Belgium, Spain, the United States of America, France, Greece, Italy, the Middle East, Nigeria, the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic and Turkey.
The topics most frequently discussed were the costs of conflict, post-conflict reconstruction issues, military spending (trends, cooperation, links between policy and military spending) and industrial issues relating to cybersecurity.
Josselin Droff presented a work co-written with Julien Malizard entitled «The two faces of Janus or the two markets hypothesis».
- Le «demand shock» post February 2022 makes it necessary adapting our industrial offering. Europe is faced with a relatively inelastic supply situation in the face of strategic disruptions that are changing demand. In qualitative terms, the conflict in Ukraine is indicative of the importance of new capabilities in the conduct of operations in a modern high-intensity conflict such as remotely-operated munitions, small, multi-purpose UAVs (whether airborne, land-based or naval), cyber or space (particularly in terms of data transmission and processing).
- From an industrial economics perspective, the identification of a high risk of attrition leads to an interest in the consumables market, In other words, equipment with a very short lifespan (e.g. drones). On the other hand, the context of the show of force between the major military powers makes it impossible to give up on durable goods, These are major pieces of equipment with a very long lifespan and strong symbolic value (aircraft carriers, combat aircraft, hyper-sonic missiles, ballistic missiles, etc.).
- This ambivalence is at the heart of current changes the defence industry in particular. Given these changes in demand for defence equipment, our working hypothesis is that there are two arms markets.
- The first is made up of traditional players the defence industry, capable of providing traditional capabilities such as armoured vehicles, artillery systems, aircraft and ships.
- The second refers to emerging industrial players which meet certain needs not covered by conventional equipment, such as in the fields of UAVs, cyber, space or IT and data processing.
From the point of view of industrial policy, It is particularly important to understand the structural parameters of the these two markets to identify the right levers for adapting supply to demand.
