The Chair was present at the autumn seminar co-organised by IRSEM and ENSTA Paris.
The Chair was represented by Julien Malizard (deputy holder), Josselin Droff (researcher), Laure Noël (researcher) and Jade Guiberteau (research assistant) at Autumn seminar «Economics of defence and conflict».», co-organised by the’IRSEM and the’ENSTA Paris. This event took place on Tuesday 9 November 2021, from 9am to 5pm, at the Ecole Militaire (Paris). Maxime Menuet, research associate Chair, was also present to discuss his work.
The aim of the day was to bring together researchers from both public institutions and universities to take stock of advances in defence and conflict economics and to revive cooperation between peers, which has been affected by recent health constraints.
Laure Noël presented work carried out in collaboration with Josselin Droff and Julien Malizard on national preferences for fighter aircraft in Europe. This work is a continuation of a published article in spring 2021 by researchers in the Revue Historique des Armées.
- How are they built and evolve State preferences for combat aircraft in Europe over the period 1990-2019.
- A original database enables us to quantify changes or continuities through indicators such as fleet size, diversity and average age.
- The econometric model aims to estimate the share allocated by each country to the origin of the equipment (national construction, European cooperation, American or Soviet) depending on the characteristics of the fleet, the economic conditions and the strategic environment.
- The main results show that :
- Younger devices are, on average, associated with a higher proportion of devices produced on a national or cooperative industrial basis.
- The existence of a national defence technological and industrial base (DTIB) is associated with a higher proportion of aircraft produced on a national basis.
- Learning effects and the weight of history remain major determinants. The number of years of membership of the European Union is associated with a higher proportion of aircraft produced in cooperation. Being a former member of the Warsaw Pact is associated with a higher proportion of aircraft of Russian origin.
Jade Guiberteau presented an original work carried out in collaboration with Josselin Droff and Julien Malizard on measuring the determinants of French arms exports since the end of the Cold War.
- The study was carried out using a original database constructed by the Chair team. The analysis is based on the use of a national source to define French arms exports, i.e. various reports to Parliament on French exports, rather than the traditional SIPRI source.
- Numerous results were presented on the determinants of France's export decisions and volumes. The traditional variables (distance or GDP per capita) have an expected effect on France's export decision and volume, i.e. negative and positive. Furthermore, France exports more easily and more to countries involved in an inter-state conflict. We also note that the effect of embargoes on the export decision is negative, particularly mandatory embargoes imposed by the United Nations.
Ultimately, the aim of this work is to highlight the existence of different conclusions depending on the source used to determine French arms exports.
Maxime Menuet also gave a presentation of his work on the impact of armed conflict on elections.
